The … Nobody cares what political party you are. Amid the patchwork of varying measures, it’s incredibly difficult to assess the economic damage from the second-wave containment steps. While I believe there is room for upside into 2021, the risk/reward is NOT favorable here anymore. We anticipate a modest further tapering, driven entirely by a falling issuance profile for the federal government. And, negotiations with the U.S. will restart on a more positive note now that the British government removed the illegal clauses embedded within the Internal Market Bill. Meanwhile, investor risk appetites should be whetted as the rollout of vaccines brightens economic prospects and the attraction of riskier asset classes. Extraordinary policy comes with unintended consequences and is challenging to unwind. While longer-term rates look to rise, we still only have 10-year Canadas at 1.10% at the end of 2021. report. Rate hikes are off the table, though further easing is possible but would take a deterioration in the outlook (think vaccine issues or something like that). India is forecast to grow at 10.1 per cent in 2022, becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world, the United Nations said on Tuesday, but cautioned that the growth outlook of 2021 … .Rd5g7JmL4Fdk-aZi1-U_V{transition:all .1s linear 0s}._2TMXtA984ePtHXMkOpHNQm{font-size:16px;font-weight:500;line-height:20px;margin-bottom:4px}.CneW1mCG4WJXxJbZl5tzH{border-top:1px solid var(--newRedditTheme-line);margin-top:16px;padding-top:16px}._11ARF4IQO4h3HeKPpPg0xb{transition:all .1s linear 0s;display:none;fill:var(--newCommunityTheme-button);height:16px;width:16px;vertical-align:middle;margin-bottom:2px;margin-left:4px;cursor:pointer}._1I3N-uBrbZH-ywcmCnwv_B:hover ._11ARF4IQO4h3HeKPpPg0xb{display:inline-block}._2IvhQwkgv_7K0Q3R0695Cs{border-radius:4px;border:1px solid var(--newCommunityTheme-line)}._2IvhQwkgv_7K0Q3R0695Cs:focus{outline:none}._1I3N-uBrbZH-ywcmCnwv_B{transition:all .1s linear 0s;border-radius:4px;border:1px solid var(--newCommunityTheme-line)}._1I3N-uBrbZH-ywcmCnwv_B:focus{outline:none}._1I3N-uBrbZH-ywcmCnwv_B.IeceazVNz_gGZfKXub0ak,._1I3N-uBrbZH-ywcmCnwv_B:hover{border:1px solid var(--newCommunityTheme-button)}._35hmSCjPO8OEezK36eUXpk._35hmSCjPO8OEezK36eUXpk._35hmSCjPO8OEezK36eUXpk{margin-top:25px;left:-9px}._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP,._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP:focus-within,._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP._3aEIeAgUy9VfJyRPljMNJP:hover{transition:all .1s linear 0s;border:none;padding:8px 8px 0}._25yWxLGH4C6j26OKFx8kD5{display:inline}._2YsVWIEj0doZMxreeY6iDG{font-size:12px;font-weight:400;line-height:16px;color:var(--newCommunityTheme-metaText);display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;padding:4px 6px}._1hFCAcL4_gkyWN0KM96zgg{color:var(--newCommunityTheme-button);margin-right:8px;margin-left:auto;color:var(--newCommunityTheme-errorText)}._1hFCAcL4_gkyWN0KM96zgg,._1dF0IdghIrnqkJiUxfswxd{font-size:12px;font-weight:700;line-height:16px;cursor:pointer;-ms-flex-item-align:end;align-self:flex-end;-webkit-user-select:none;-ms-user-select:none;user-select:none}._1dF0IdghIrnqkJiUxfswxd{color:var(--newCommunityTheme-button)}._3VGrhUu842I3acqBMCoSAq{font-weight:700;color:#ff4500;text-transform:uppercase;margin-right:4px}._3VGrhUu842I3acqBMCoSAq,.edyFgPHILhf5OLH2vk-tk{font-size:12px;line-height:16px}.edyFgPHILhf5OLH2vk-tk{font-weight:400;-ms-flex-preferred-size:100%;flex-basis:100%;margin-bottom:4px;color:var(--newCommunityTheme-metaText)}._19lMIGqzfTPVY3ssqTiZSX._19lMIGqzfTPVY3ssqTiZSX._19lMIGqzfTPVY3ssqTiZSX{margin-top:6px}._19lMIGqzfTPVY3ssqTiZSX._19lMIGqzfTPVY3ssqTiZSX._19lMIGqzfTPVY3ssqTiZSX._3MAHaXXXXi9Xrmc_oMPTdP{margin-top:4px} Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2021 5. This is one year that everyone will look forward to with far more anticipation than ever before. That said, the provinces that have issued FY21/22 guidance are pointing to deficit reductions somewhere in the order of one-third of FY20/21 levels, on average. Yup, you’re outlook makes the most sense. Major downside risks include possible glitches in the vaccine rollout, an adverse mutation of the virus, and the unwinding of fiscal support in the spring. The economy is expected to grow 4.5% in 2021, the best year since the 1999 tech boom. The core inflation rate is predicted to be 1.4% in 2020, and slowly rise to 1.8% in 2021, … Looking back, the current price of crude would have appeared almost inconceivable after prices plummeted into negative territory in April. Both retail sales and industrial production have carved out nearly a perfect V-shaped recovery in the world’s second largest economy. The range of uncertainty around our forecast remains wide. The United Kingdom will begin 2021 with a fresh start on trade and will freely negotiate trade agreements on its own. Look for China to focus on trade elsewhere, particularly in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the massive trade agreement between a dozen countries that was signed in November. These concerns may well grow louder in the coming year, especially if growth comes close to the upside possibilities. No news articles, no media outlets, no opinion pieces. For the loonie, it was a wild 2020 getting absolutely hammered at the height of the crisis, before fully recovering, and then some, to end the year at the strongest in over two years. It already had a taste of it after a number of European countries blocked borders and travel with the U.K. as the new strain of the virus spread in December. @keyframes _1tIZttmhLdrIGrB-6VvZcT{0%{opacity:0}to{opacity:1}}._3uK2I0hi3JFTKnMUFHD2Pd,.HQ2VJViRjokXpRbJzPvvc{--infoTextTooltip-overflow-left:0px;font-size:12px;font-weight:500;line-height:16px;padding:3px 9px;position:absolute;border-radius:4px;margin-top:-6px;background:#000;color:#fff;animation:_1tIZttmhLdrIGrB-6VvZcT .5s step-end;z-index:100;white-space:pre-wrap}._3uK2I0hi3JFTKnMUFHD2Pd:after,.HQ2VJViRjokXpRbJzPvvc:after{content:"";position:absolute;top:100%;left:calc(50% - 4px - var(--infoTextTooltip-overflow-left));width:0;height:0;border-top:3px solid #000;border-left:4px solid transparent;border-right:4px solid transparent}._3uK2I0hi3JFTKnMUFHD2Pd{margin-top:6px}._3uK2I0hi3JFTKnMUFHD2Pd:after{border-bottom:3px solid #000;border-top:none;bottom:100%;top:auto} ._3Qx5bBCG_O8wVZee9J-KyJ{border-top:1px solid var(--newRedditTheme-line);margin-top:16px;padding-top:16px}._3Qx5bBCG_O8wVZee9J-KyJ ._2NbKFI9n3wPM76pgfAPEsN{margin:0;padding:0}._3Qx5bBCG_O8wVZee9J-KyJ ._2NbKFI9n3wPM76pgfAPEsN ._2btz68cXFBI3RWcfSNwbmJ{font-family:Noto Sans,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:400;line-height:21px;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-ms-flex-pack:justify;justify-content:space-between;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;margin:8px 0}._3Qx5bBCG_O8wVZee9J-KyJ ._2NbKFI9n3wPM76pgfAPEsN ._2btz68cXFBI3RWcfSNwbmJ.QgBK4ECuqpeR2umRjYcP2{opacity:.4}._3Qx5bBCG_O8wVZee9J-KyJ ._2NbKFI9n3wPM76pgfAPEsN ._2btz68cXFBI3RWcfSNwbmJ label{font-size:12px;font-weight:500;line-height:16px;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center}._3Qx5bBCG_O8wVZee9J-KyJ ._2NbKFI9n3wPM76pgfAPEsN ._2btz68cXFBI3RWcfSNwbmJ label svg{fill:currentColor;height:20px;margin-right:4px;width:20px;-ms-flex:0 0 auto;flex:0 0 auto}._3Qx5bBCG_O8wVZee9J-KyJ ._4OtOUaGIjjp2cNJMUxme_{-ms-flex-pack:justify;justify-content:space-between}._3Qx5bBCG_O8wVZee9J-KyJ ._4OtOUaGIjjp2cNJMUxme_ svg{display:inline-block;height:12px;width:12px}._2b2iJtPCDQ6eKanYDf3Jho{-ms-flex:0 0 auto;flex:0 0 auto}._4OtOUaGIjjp2cNJMUxme_{padding:0 12px}._1ra1vBLrjtHjhYDZ_gOy8F{font-family:Noto Sans,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;letter-spacing:unset;line-height:16px;text-transform:unset;--textColor:var(--newCommunityTheme-widgetColors-sidebarWidgetTextColor);--textColorHover:var(--newCommunityTheme-widgetColors-sidebarWidgetTextColorShaded80);font-size:10px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:12px;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--textColor);fill:var(--textColor);opacity:1}._1ra1vBLrjtHjhYDZ_gOy8F._2UlgIO1LIFVpT30ItAtPfb{--textColor:var(--newRedditTheme-widgetColors-sidebarWidgetTextColor);--textColorHover:var(--newRedditTheme-widgetColors-sidebarWidgetTextColorShaded80)}._1ra1vBLrjtHjhYDZ_gOy8F:active,._1ra1vBLrjtHjhYDZ_gOy8F:hover{color:var(--textColorHover);fill:var(--textColorHover)}._1ra1vBLrjtHjhYDZ_gOy8F:disabled,._1ra1vBLrjtHjhYDZ_gOy8F[data-disabled],._1ra1vBLrjtHjhYDZ_gOy8F[disabled]{opacity:.5;cursor:not-allowed}.isInIcons2020 ._3a4fkgD25f5G-b0Y8wVIBe{margin-right:8px} After a year in which very little went right, perhaps it’s encouraging that Jupiter and Saturn moved into alignment late in December. Unlike in 2020, however, there’s also substantial upside for the economy. Global growth is projected at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022. ._13jLUpnQtcA8FXyw5Kv06q{display:-ms-inline-flexbox;display:inline-flex;-ms-flex:0 0 auto;flex:0 0 auto} 2021 Economic Outlook featuring:Tom Barkin | The Federal Reserve Bank of RichmondBrian Shull | City of HarrisonburgCasey Armstrong | Rockingham County But there will be a time when the crisis is over that the fiscal hawks will demand evidence from those who received Recovery Fund grants that spending is being reined in. On December 16, the FOMC repeated that it would maintain the 0%-to-0.25% fed funds target range “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time”. Full disclosure, we have been relentlessly on the high side of consensus for more than six months now, and remain there even with these revisions. Just a hint of untrustworthiness or being shaky and others pullback. Aside from COVID, the regional landscape will also be shaped by subdued energy-sector activity (although late-2020 price action is supportive of industry cash flow), a limited return of travel and tourism, and a continued lull in population flows that had been very supportive (especially in smaller provinces) in recent years. I think its a bit more complication than that just because of the difficulty in correctly estimating the logistics of vaccine deployment and usage within the population. The bigger story on the FX front is the anticipated US$ weakness, which will be tough for any currency to offset. Powered by the need to expand digital platforms for customers and workers, business spending has rebounded sharply, and will receive an extra lift in 2021 from rising commercial structures beyond the already-ample need for industrial and warehouse space. We look for the Federal Reserve to remain steadfast as 2021 unfolds, maintaining a policy bias to increase accommodation further if necessary, particularly during the first third of the year as surging COVID-19 cases and consequent increases in business and social restrictions weigh on economic growth. A fast and sheer recession gives about a decade of depression. All of these provinces are expected to lag the 5.0% national average, even as they presumably start to see better sequential growth prints toward the end of 2021Q1. As the year draws to a close, the new round of fiscal support of $900 billion (or a hefty 4% of GDP), including direct payments of $600 per individual, awaits the President's support. The global economy is expected to rebound 5.5% in 2021, and then advance another 4.0% in 2022, after plunging 4.0% this year. A catastrophic third Covid wave is limiting mobility, curbing employment and constraining demand. Utah’s preparation paved the way for a year like 2020. The outlook depends not just on the outcome of the battle between the virus and vaccines—it also hinges on how effectively economic policies deployed under high uncertainty can limit lasting damage from this unprecedented crisis. @keyframes ibDwUVR1CAykturOgqOS5{0%{transform:rotate(0deg)}to{transform:rotate(1turn)}}._3LwT7hgGcSjmJ7ng7drAuq{--sizePx:0;font-size:4px;position:relative;text-indent:-9999em;border-radius:50%;border:4px solid var(--newCommunityTheme-bodyTextAlpha20);border-left-color:var(--newCommunityTheme-body);transform:translateZ(0);animation:ibDwUVR1CAykturOgqOS5 1.1s linear infinite}._3LwT7hgGcSjmJ7ng7drAuq,._3LwT7hgGcSjmJ7ng7drAuq:after{width:var(--sizePx);height:var(--sizePx)}._3LwT7hgGcSjmJ7ng7drAuq:after{border-radius:50%}._3LwT7hgGcSjmJ7ng7drAuq._2qr28EeyPvBWAsPKl-KuWN{margin:0 auto} Ultimately, while the tail risks for inflation have fattened, we believe that even in a world of a potentially rapid recovery, overwhelming slack in many sectors, and an overhang of unemployment for years, any burst in headline inflation will simply not be sustained. So much in life and business depends upon one’s trustworthiness. As the recovery in both supply and demand is likely to ebb and flow, much will depend on OPEC+’s commitment to balance the oil market. The 2021 provincial fiscal outlook is still highly uncertain given that this year’s starting point for deficit levels is likely subject to meaningful revision. While the RBA is trying to hold it back, the Australian dollar is now up more than 10% from a year ago and not far from parity with the loonie at around 76 cents(US). Follow this columnist. America's economic comeback is underway. The pandemic drove the Bank of Canada into unprecedented territory, with unconventional measures unleashed for the first time, in addition to bringing the policy rate to the effective lower bound. At the same time, rising equity and home values are padding household wealth, another source of spending. ._7_d4sJjd2oYzaJuU_QpOI{font-size:12px;font-weight:500;line-height:16px;border-radius:2px;display:inline-block;margin-right:5px;overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;vertical-align:text-bottom;white-space:pre;word-break:normal;background-color:var(--newRedditTheme-flair);color:var(--newRedditTheme-linkText);margin-top:10px;padding:0 4px}._7_d4sJjd2oYzaJuU_QpOI._1rtoCmW_7bFJWYffSOwt4R{margin-top:0} With most regions of Ontario also facing some degree of containment, the province will also struggle to outperform; although it is arguably among the best-positioned for a strong recovery later in the year. The organization revised up its 2020 growth estimate for South Korea to a 1.1 percent retreat from a 1.9 percent contraction. Follow macroeconomic data releases and professional commentary. One implication of the relatively robust recovery in commodity prices, as well as the deep dive in interest rates and strong financial markets, is that emerging markets held up relatively well overall. We have also tweaked our call on Canadian growth over the next two years. TD Bank: The Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty - April 8th, 2021 ( nesgfoa.org) submitted 1 minute ago by jacobhess13. A small potential tweak might be a greater focus on the 1%-to-3% target band rather than the 2% mid-point. Able to scoop up more value names enter your email address tapering, driven entirely by falling! Am keeping an open mind and definitely an eye on vaccine rollout hanging in the global Canadian! Containment steps appears that financial markets are all but ignoring the mounting bad news and focusing on boil. Foreign relations front, the conjunction between the two planets on Monday—also Winter... 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